Beyond the Axis is part of the Cross-border Conflict Evidence Policy and Trends (XCEPT) programme, which delivers 1 of the 5 pillars of the Global Research and Technology Development (GRTD) portfolio: geopolitics and humanitarian – specifically the priorities of navigating contemporary politics and countering modern security threats.

Beyond the Axis is the culmination of 2 years of research combining fieldwork, large scale data analysis, and over 250 interviews across the Middle East and the Horn of Africa by a team of researchers at the U.S-headquartered Century International. The project set out to understand how Iranian arms transfers to allied groups has changed over time, and was ultimately able to explain how and why Iran, and its ‘Axis of Resistance’ allies, have proven more resilient than expected in the wake of the regional crises since October 2023.

The research demonstrates how the Axis has engaged in a constant process of adaptation and expansion across the Levant, Yemen and, increasingly, the Horn of Africa; how Iran has enabled allied groups not only to deploy advanced weapons, but to build and even transfer these capabilities; and how deeply conflict economies are integrated into global economic systems, blurring the lines between licit and illicit goods. The result is a networked ecosystem of increasingly self-sufficient armed groups, extending beyond the Axis’s traditional bounds.

The implication is that many of the traditional policy tools actors like the UK have relied on to tackle the proliferation of weapons to ‘Axis’ actors – from sanctions, to targeting leadership or supply routes – are struggling to keep pace with a model that is that is more distributed, more embedded in global markets and more capable of rapid adaptation. It can absorb shocks, reroute and continue operating even under sustained pressure. In the context of protracted, networked conflicts and rapid technological diffusion, understanding this will be foundational to effective responses to these threats.

Read the report: Beyond the Axis