Mapping the Shadow Economy

A systematic review of shadow economy measurement methods and policy measures in Baltic States, Cyprus, Georgia, Malta and Moldova

This report synthesises evidence on how the shadow economy is measured and addressed across seven countries, combining systematic literature reviews and stakeholder insights to identify effective policy approaches and research gaps.

About this publication

Authors Ioana Alexandra Horodnic; Josip Franic; Mara Zaharia; Andriana Zaiț; Slavko Bezeredi; Ivica Urban; Ioana Claudia Ciobanu; Andreia Gabriela Anderi; Carmen Oana Țugulea
Publication date December 2024
Publication type Research report; systematic review
Programme / grant Commissioned by GRTD Research Commissioning Centre (RCC), co-led by 3ie and University of Birmingham
Funding Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) (UK Government)
Licence Unless otherwise stated, content on this page is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY 4.0).

Abstract

The shadow economy remains a persistent challenge for governments across Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, undermining tax collection, distorting labour markets, and weakening institutions. This project, supported by the GRTD Research Commissioning Centre (RCC), seeks to strengthen understanding of the shadow economy and improve strategies to address it in the Baltic States, Cyprus, Georgia, Malta, and Moldova.

To do so, the project conducted two systematic reviews and three stakeholder workshops to assess policy effectiveness and measurement practices. Findings highlight a significant gap in rigorous evaluations of anti-shadow economy measures, especially in low-data environments. Yet the evidence base, including administrative insights and grey literature, points to promising approaches, such as targeted inspections, incentives for formalisation, digital reforms and public awareness campaigns. A companion review of quantification methods underscores the value of multi-method approaches in understanding the scale and dynamics of informal economies.

Together, the reviews and consultations underscore the need for context-specific, evidence-informed strategies that combine detection and enforcement with trust-building, simplification and inclusive incentives. All outputs are available below to support policymakers, practitioners and researchers advancing formal economic participation.

Key findings

  • Evidence on policy effectiveness is limited and fragmented, with very few rigorous evaluation studies.
  • Effective approaches span five areas: detection, sanctions, incentives for formalisation, education, and institutional modernisation.
  • Policies promoting voluntary compliance and improving the benefits of formal participation tend to be more effective than punitive measures alone.
  • Estimates of the shadow economy vary widely depending on method; no single approach is fully reliable.
  • Multi-method measurement strategies provide more robust and credible insights than single-method approaches.

Key recommendations

  • Adopt a holistic policy mix combining detection, sanctions, incentives, education, and institutional reform.
  • Strengthen collaboration between researchers and enforcement authorities to improve data access and enable rigorous evaluation.
  • Tailor policies to country-specific drivers, institutions and socio-economic conditions.
  • Use multi-method approaches to measure the shadow economy rather than relying on a single estimation technique.
  • Invest in digitalisation, transparency and trust-building to improve compliance and institutional effectiveness.

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Citation

Horodnic, I. A., Franic, J., Zaharia, M., Zaiț, A., Bezeredi, S., Urban, I., Ciobanu, I. C., Anderi, A. G., & Țugulea, C. O. (2024). Mapping the shadow economy: A systematic review of shadow economy measurement methods and policy measures in Baltic States, Cyprus, Georgia, Malta and Moldova. RCC.

References

References are provided extensively within the report (pp. 72–84).

Supporting literature includes academic studies, institutional reports and grey literature on shadow economy measurement and policy.

Open Access Statement

This research output is made available in accordance with the FCDO Open Access Policy (December 2025). As part of a programme within the scope of this policy, this publication is freely accessible to all users without financial, legal, or technical barriers.

The full text is provided under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, distribution, and adaptation of the material in any medium, provided appropriate credit is given to the original authors and source.

This output has been made available through an approved open access route and deposited in a recognised repository in line with FCDO requirements, including compliance with any required timelines for open access publication.

Where third-party material is included, users should check the relevant rights statements before reuse.

Accessibility

Please contact rcc@3ieimpact.org if you require an accessible version of the full PDF.

Questions

For any questions about this publication, email rcc@3ieimpact.org with ‘Mapping the Shadow Economy’ in the subject line.

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